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In the run-up to any major political debate, campaign strategists on both sides typically work tirelessly to prepare their candidates for all possible scenarios. During the 2020 election cycle, the Trump campaign focused heavily on former Vice President Mike Pence’s matchup with then-Senator Kamala Harris in the lone vice-presidential debate. According to reports from within the Trump campaign, despite the contentious atmosphere surrounding the election, members of Trump’s team expected Harris to perform “fine” in her debate against Pence. This suggests a sense of measured respect for her abilities, even as both campaigns engaged in fierce partisan rhetoric.
The Setting: High Stakes for the VP Debate
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The 2020 election was characterized by polarization and an incredibly divided electorate. Both the presidential and vice-presidential debates were seen as high-stakes moments where candidates could sway undecided voters, reinforce their base, or make missteps that could haunt their campaigns. For the Trump team, Pence’s debate with Harris offered a unique opportunity to highlight their policies while attempting to scrutinize the Democratic ticket.
In this context, debates are not just moments of political theater—they are a key part of campaign strategy. For both sides, the debate stage is an opportunity to communicate directly with the American public without the filter of media coverage. This was particularly important for Kamala Harris, as her debate with Pence was her first and only direct, face-to-face interaction with a member of the Trump administration during the campaign. It also gave the public a closer look at the potential vice president under a Biden administration.
Harris’s Background: Prepared for the Spotlight
Kamala Harris, before being selected as Joe Biden’s running mate, had made a name for herself in national politics through her work as a senator and former attorney general of California. Known for her sharp questioning in Senate hearings—particularly in the confirmation hearings of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh—Harris was recognized for her prosecutorial style and ability to command a stage. This skill set made her a formidable opponent in any debate, particularly in a setting where she could use her legal background to scrutinize Pence and the Trump administration’s policies.
Trump campaign insiders, according to reports, acknowledged that Harris’s experience as a prosecutor and her tenure in the Senate would serve her well in a debate. Despite their public rhetoric, which often attacked Harris as part of the “radical left,” internally, the Trump team did not underestimate her debating capabilities. This led to a more cautious approach to debate preparation, focusing on defending Pence’s record and highlighting differences in policy rather than underestimating Harris’s ability to deliver a strong performance.
Trump Campaign’s Debate Strategy
The Trump campaign anticipated that Harris would deliver a competent, if not stellar, performance. This pragmatic assessment may have been influenced by her background as well as her performance during the Democratic primary debates, where she demonstrated a quick wit and an ability to strike sharp blows, including her notable confrontation with Biden over issues of race and busing.
As a result, the Trump campaign prepared Pence for a range of potential attacks, especially on issues where the administration was seen as vulnerable, such as its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, immigration policies, and racial justice. The strategy was to emphasize Pence’s calm demeanor and steady approach, hoping to contrast his vice-presidential experience with Harris’s relative newcomer status on the national stage.
Trump’s team also likely focused on policy defenses and avoiding gaffes that could become fodder for media soundbites. Given Pence’s more subdued public profile compared to Trump, his role was to defend the administration’s record while appearing measured and competent—a counterweight to the more bombastic approach often taken by Trump himself.
The Role of Expectations in Debates
The Trump team’s anticipation of a “fine” performance from Harris underscores an important aspect of debate preparation: the role of expectations. In political debates, managing expectations is often just as important as preparing for policy questions. When a candidate is expected to perform well, as Harris was, their team must prepare them to meet or exceed those expectations, lest they appear underwhelming. Conversely, if a candidate is expected to perform poorly, even a passable performance can be framed as a success.
For Harris, expectations were relatively high. As a former prosecutor and a leading figure in the Democratic Party, she was expected to hold her own against Pence, who had previously debated in the 2016 election cycle against Tim Kaine. The challenge for Harris was not just to defend the Biden campaign’s policies but to prove herself as a capable leader in her own right—someone who could potentially step into the presidency if necessary.
The Trump campaign was well aware of this dynamic, and their prediction that Harris would perform “fine” was likely part of a broader strategy to manage expectations on both sides. If Harris delivered a competent performance, the Trump team could frame it as expected, while focusing on Pence’s experience and consistency as his strengths. If she faltered, they could capitalize on that as evidence that she was not ready for the vice presidency or, by extension, the presidency.
The Debate: A Civil, Yet Contentious Exchange
When the vice-presidential debate eventually took place, it was markedly different from the chaotic and combative first presidential debate between Trump and Biden. Pence and Harris engaged in a relatively civil exchange, though the debate still featured pointed attacks and sharp contrasts on issues ranging from healthcare and the economy to foreign policy and COVID-19.
Harris, as expected, used her prosecutorial skills to press Pence on the administration’s pandemic response, which had become a central issue in the election. Pence, for his part, defended the administration’s record and sought to portray the Biden-Harris ticket as out of touch with American values. While neither candidate made a major misstep, the debate did provide moments for both campaigns to highlight the strengths of their respective candidates.
Pence’s calm and steady performance contrasted with Harris’s assertiveness, and both candidates largely met the expectations set for them. For the Trump campaign, Pence’s ability to avoid any significant gaffes while defending the administration was seen as a success, especially given the tumultuous nature of Trump’s campaign at the time. Harris’s strong performance reassured Democrats that she could hold her own on the national stage, which was particularly important given concerns about Biden’s age and potential succession.
Conclusion
The Trump campaign’s prediction that Kamala Harris would perform “fine” in the vice-presidential debate was borne out in reality. Harris’s experience as a prosecutor and her sharp debating skills were on full display, though Pence managed to hold his ground with a calm and measured approach. Ultimately, the debate did little to shift the dynamics of the race, with both sides largely reinforcing the views of their respective bases.
While debates rarely determine the outcome of an election, they offer critical opportunities for candidates to define themselves in the eyes of voters. In this case, the Trump campaign’s strategic calculation reflected a realistic assessment of Harris’s abilities, preparing for a tough but manageable encounter rather than underestimating an opponent who was clearly capable of delivering a strong performance.